Survey Overview & MAGA Segmentation
Total Respondents
252
All confirmed 2024 Trump voters
MAGA Core
83 (32.9%)
"I identify with and am part of MAGA"
MAGA Sympathizers
99 (39.3%)
"I sympathize with some of the MAGA movement"
Non-MAGA Trump
70 (27.8%)
"I voted Trump but am not part of MAGA"
MAGA-Affiliated (net)
72.2%
Core + Sympathizers combined
Field Date
Mar. 2, 2026
Single-wave quantitative survey
MAGA Alignment Spectrum — Share of Trump Voter Base
◄ MOST MAGA-ALIGNED
LEAST MAGA-ALIGNED ►
This dashboard re-segments the Project 8951 Trump voter survey (n=252) using Q160: MAGA Movement Alignment as the primary variable. The three resulting segments — MAGA Core, MAGA Sympathizers, and Non-MAGA Trump Voters — reveal a Trump coalition that is far from monolithic. Policy enthusiasm, institutional trust, vote re-intent, and demographic composition diverge sharply across the spectrum.
Segment At-a-Glance Profiles
MAGA Core (n=83, 32.9%)
MAGA Sympathizers (n=99, 39.3%)
Non-MAGA Trump (n=70, 27.8%)
🔴 MAGA Core
n = 83 · 32.9% of sample
"I identify with and am part of the MAGA movement"
Dominant age65+ (47.0%)
EthnicityWhite/Caucasian (85.5%)
Top regionSouth (47.0%)
GenderFemale 53% · Male 47%
Party: Republican91.6%
Would vote Trump again100.0%
Very supportive of tariffs83.1%
Very supportive of deportations92.8%
US image: Gotten better90.4%
🟠 MAGA Sympathizers
n = 99 · 39.3% of sample
"I sympathize with some MAGA ideas"
Dominant age65+ (38.4%) / 30-44 (31.3%)
EthnicityWhite/Caucasian (80.8%)
Top regionSouth (50.5%)
GenderMale 54.5% · Female 45.5%
Party: Republican81.8%
Would vote Trump again94.9%
Very supportive of tariffs46.5%
Very supportive of deportations65.7%
US image: Gotten better66.7%
⚫ Non-MAGA Trump
n = 70 · 27.8% of sample
"I voted Trump but am not part of MAGA"
Dominant age65+ (51.4%) — highest of 3
EthnicityWhite/Caucasian (74.3%)
Top regionSouth (42.9%) / Midwest (24.3%)
GenderFemale 55.7% · Male 44.3%
Party: Republican57.1%
Would vote Trump again64.3%
Very supportive of tariffs18.6%
Very supportive of deportations41.4%
US image: Gotten better37.1%
Policy Positions by MAGA Segment
📦 Tariff Policy
Tariff Support Level — by MAGA Segment
Tariff Position (3-Way) — by MAGA Segment
| Tariff Support | MAGA Core | Sympathizers | Non-MAGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very supportive | 83.1% | 46.5% | 18.6% |
| Somewhat supportive | 10.8% | 43.4% | 32.9% |
| Somewhat concerned | 1.2% | 7.1% | 25.7% |
| Very concerned | 4.8% | 3.0% | 22.9% |
| Net supportive | 93.9% | 89.9% | 51.5% |
64.5
Point gap in "very supportive" tariff ratings between MAGA Core (83.1%) and Non-MAGA Trump voters (18.6%) — the largest single policy gap in the survey.
🚒 Deportation Policy
Deportation Support Level — by MAGA Segment
Deportation Position (3-Way) — by MAGA Segment
| Deportation Support | MAGA Core | Sympathizers | Non-MAGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very supportive | 92.8% | 65.7% | 41.4% |
| Somewhat supportive | 4.8% | 30.3% | 24.3% |
| Somewhat concerned | 0.0% | 4.0% | 18.6% |
| Very concerned | 2.4% | 0.0% | 15.7% |
| Net supportive | 97.6% | 96.0% | 65.7% |
🌍 America's Global Image Since Trump Took Office
Do you feel America's image has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same?
⚡ Administration's "Threaten, Apply, Pause" Approach
Support for the chaos / pressure approach on tariffs, sanctions, and executive orders
| Chaos Approach | MAGA Core | Sympathizers | Non-MAGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very supportive | 73.5% | 42.4% | 14.3% |
| Somewhat supportive | 20.5% | 44.4% | 30.0% |
| Somewhat concerned | 4.8% | 11.1% | 28.6% |
| Very concerned | 1.2% | 2.0% | 27.1% |
| Net supportive | 94.0% | 86.8% | 44.3% |
Vote Again in 2024 Rerun
If 2024 election were held again — who would you vote for?
Trump Re-Vote Rate by MAGA Segment
MAGA Core
100% — unanimous
100%
Sympathizers
94.9%
94.9%
Non-MAGA
64.3%
64.3%
Key signal: Non-MAGA Trump voters show a 35.7% defection rate. Among those, 20% say "someone else," 8.6% say Harris, and 7.1% would abstain.
Rule of Law & Courts
Court ruling position — by MAGA segment
| Court Ruling Position | MAGA Core | Sympathizers | Non-MAGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Can disregard — including Supreme Court | 37.3% | 27.3% | 5.7% |
| Can disregard — except Supreme Court | 12.0% | 21.2% | 24.3% |
| Cannot disregard — must appeal | 50.6% | 51.5% | 70.0% |
31.6
Point gap in support for disregarding court rulings (including SCOTUS) between MAGA Core (37.3%) and Non-MAGA Trump (5.7%).
Party Composition within MAGA Segments
Party Affiliation — by MAGA Segment
Party Mix Within Each Segment
| Party | MAGA Core | Sympathizers | Non-MAGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 91.6% | 81.8% | 57.1% |
| Independent / Other | 6.0% | 14.1% | 28.6% |
| Democrat | 2.4% | 4.0% | 14.3% |
Takeaway: 42.9% of Non-MAGA Trump voters are not registered Republicans.
Demographics by MAGA Segment
Age — by MAGA Segment
Household Income — by MAGA Segment
Race / Ethnicity — by MAGA Segment
Education Level — by MAGA Segment
Employment Status — by MAGA Segment
Key Findings by MAGA Segment
1
MAGA Core is the only segment with 100% Trump re-vote intent. No defection, no ambiguity.
2
Non-MAGA Trump voters have a 35.7% defection rate. This is the most fragile segment in the coalition.
3
Tariff support spans 64.5 points across the spectrum. Tariffs function as an identity signal for MAGA Core.
4
Deportation intensity gap is 51.4 points. Core 92.8% vs. Non-MAGA 41.4% "very supportive."
5
The "chaos" approach is a MAGA Core exclusive. 73.5% of Core vs. 14.3% of Non-MAGA very supportive.
6
Non-MAGA voters are strongly institutionalist on courts. 70% say President cannot disregard court rulings.
7
MAGA Sympathizers are the persuadable middle. They sit between Core and Non-MAGA on most questions.
8
Non-MAGA voters are oldest and lowest-income. 51.4% are 65+ and 52.9% have HHI under $50K.
9
MAGA Sympathizers are the most educated segment. 32.3% hold postgraduate degrees.
10
42.9% of Non-MAGA voters are not Republicans. Highest share of Independents (28.6%) and Democrats (14.3%).
Strategic Recommendations by MAGA Segment
MAGA Core — Energize and Mobilize, Not Persuade
With 100% re-vote intent, focus on activation — turnout and civic engagement. Policy messaging should be bold and unconditional.
MAGA Sympathizers — The Critical Persuadable Middle
Frame policies as practical problem-solving, not ideological battles. Avoid hardline MAGA rhetoric that could feel alienating.
Non-MAGA Trump — Retention Through Economic and Institutional Framing
Emphasize tangible economic outcomes. Avoid chaos tactics and court defiance that directly conflict with their values.
Cross-Segment — Differentiate Messaging by MAGA Identity, Not Just Party
MAGA alignment explains more variance in policy views than party affiliation alone. Use it as a primary audience variable.
Governance Style — The "Chaos" Approach Is a Coalition Risk
Communications aimed at Non-MAGA and Sympathizers should emphasize strategic purposefulness and outcomes over theatrics.